The recent projections by Political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi are not far from right. Kenya is still ethnically polarized, and that’s why the tribe will again be the determining cog in these coming elections. I recently had a chance with those ethnic numbers, and i can say, jubilee has a CROWD following in at least 36 counties, out of the 47.
Raila may not get the entire Eastern vote due to the neighboring Ameru and the Aembu, which happen to be jubilee tufts. North easterners on the other hand maybe biased towards Raila, but unfortunately, from the IEBC records, their voter turnout was the lowest, meaning, they will not really make much of a difference.
Rift valley is almost entirely a Ruto field. That’s why Franklin Bett resigned from elective politics because if he had vied for office, he would have lost. The place has been taken over by URP. Recently, ODM included Henry Kosgey’s name to their list of party nominees to the National assembly. Why do this, yet he is running for a senatorial seat in Nandi? Its simple. Because he will loose to URP. But since he is the ODM chairman, he has to be kept politically relevant.
If they’ll be a run-off, Mudavadi will have caused it. His continued campaign in western province will reduce the ODM grip, leading to a further division of the western votes. But voter turnout in almost all Jubilee strongholds was higher, compared to CORD tufts.
Another factor that one cannot afford to ignore, is that Kikuyus alone make over 22% of Kenya’s population…without counting their Bantu sisters like Ameru, Aembu amongst others. So in the event of a run off, and Kenyans decide to stand with their ‘own’, then anyone can guess who between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will be the next President of Kenya.